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HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024
0900 UTC THU AUG 15 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 35(50)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 53(70) 22(92) 1(93) X(93)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 32(67) 1(68) X(68)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) 1(43) X(43)
MAYAGUANA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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