Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 24

000
WTNT25 KNHC 171452
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
1500 UTC SAT AUG 17 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  64.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 210SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 280SE 260SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N  64.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N  64.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.7N  63.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.3N  63.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N  62.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  35SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.3N  59.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  35SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 130SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.9N  54.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 160SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N  47.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 51.2N  27.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  90SE  50SW   0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N  64.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG