Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 16

000
WTNT25 KNHC 151455
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  69.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  69.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  69.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N  68.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  10SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N  67.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.3N  66.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N  65.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.6N  64.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 41.6N  60.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 48.6N  48.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  70SE  70SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW  70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N  69.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/ONDERLINDE