Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 14

512 
WTNT25 KNHC 150240
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
0300 UTC THU AUG 15 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  68.9W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 120SW 165NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  68.9W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  68.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.7N  69.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.8N  68.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N  67.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N  66.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.2N  65.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N  65.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 38.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 45.0N  55.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 200SE 160SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  68.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART