Hurricane Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 12

394 
WTNT25 KNHC 141505
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052024
1500 UTC WED AUG 14 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  67.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 200SE   0SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE  75SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  67.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N  67.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.3N  68.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE  40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.5N  69.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.6N  68.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.5N  67.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 140SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N  66.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N  65.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 36.0N  65.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 120SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 42.6N  61.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  67.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG