000 WTNT34 KNHC 170232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE THREAT CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 87.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 87.3 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected until landfall. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move over Belize during the day on Sunday. Air Force Reserve aircraft data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall on Sunday, with dissipation expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km), primarily north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras through early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning overnight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake