903 WTNT34 KNHC 161752 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA NOW MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 86.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 86.8 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 4 mph (6 km/h) and a somewhat faster motion west-northwestward is expected to begin this afternoon which should continue into Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move into the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon before approaching Belize tonight. Sara should move onshore over Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to open up into a trough on Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure measured by aircraft dropsonde observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin