000 WTNT44 KNHC 170233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Sara remains a poorly organized tropical storm, with the most significant banding features in the northern semicircle well away from the low-level center. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level and dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has risen to 1001 mb and the winds have decreased. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, which are mostly occurring in the rain bands well away from the center. Aircraft fixes indicate the storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest. Sara should slightly accelerate in that direction as mid-level ridging strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico through tomorrow. The storm is expected to make landfall on Sunday on the coast of Belize, and very little change was made to the NHC forecast with guidance consistent from the last cycle. Little change in intensity is expected before landfall due to the disorganized nature of Sara, and the new intensity forecast is slightly lower than the last one. The weakened cyclone should dissipate over the southern portion of the Yucatan peninsula by early Monday. The primary hazard associated with Sara continues to be potentially catastrophic flash flooding, with substantial rainfall continuing to occur near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.5N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.7N 88.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 17.6N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake