000 WTNT35 KNHC 191153 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nadine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM NADINE NEARING LANDFALL IN BELIZE... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PARTS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 87.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Belize City, Belize to Cancun, Mexico, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case later this morning. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.3 West. Nadine is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Nadine is forecast to make landfall along the coast of Belize later this morning or early afternoon, and then continue across northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico late this afternoon into tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening is possible this morning before Nadine makes landfall. Weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon once Nadine is inland, and the system is likely to dissipate over southeastern Mexico by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nadine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml RAINFALL: Widespread 4 to 8 inch rainfall amounts are expected with Nadine across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin