Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 36

By | October 11, 2024

000
WTNT43 KNHC 110843
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
500 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2024

Leslie remains a sheared tropical storm this morning.  Based on 
geostationary satellite imagery, the low-level circulation is still 
exposed and limited bursts of deep convection in the southern 
semicircle are moving southwestward away from the center.  
Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates continue to trend downward 
and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt to represent a blend 
of the final-T and CI numbers (T3.0/3.5) from TAFB and SAB.

The storm should continue to weaken during the next couple of days.  
Model guidance agrees that the vertical wind shear will remain 
moderate-to-strong, the mid-level humidities will gradually become 
drier, and the sea surface temperatures will cool along the forecast 
track.  Leslie should lose its organized deep convection by Sunday, 
if not sooner, based on simulated satellite imagery.  There is still 
the possibility the storm will take on some extratropical 
characteristics in 48-72 h as well.  For now, the NHC intensity 
forecast still shows Leslie becoming a post-tropical cyclone over 
the weekend and dissipating early next week.

Leslie is rounding the western edge of a subtropical ridge and has 
turned northward at 9 kt.  A turn to the north-northeast is 
expected later today, followed by an acceleration to the northeast 
and east-northeast over the weekend.  The latest track forecast is 
essentially the same as the previous prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 25.5N  50.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 27.1N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 30.0N  47.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 33.1N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 35.6N  37.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  13/1800Z 36.8N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  14/0600Z 37.5N  26.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

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