Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025
000 WTNT41 KNHC 251457 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 25 2025 A large burst of persistent convection remains in the southeastern quadrant of Fernand, with 1-minute GOES-19 visible imagery suggesting that the low-level center is positioned on the northwestern edge of the burst. Scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds have increased to about 50 kt, so that will be the initial intensity. Little change in strength is anticipated today, followed by weakening commencing tomorrow due to Fernand reaching cooler waters with increasing shear. The model envelope is fairly narrow, and the new NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous one and the model consensus. The initial motion is north-northeast or 025/12 kt. A general north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected with some increase in forward speed during the remainder of the cyclone's life due to steering from the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude trough. There are some differences on whether Fernand is picked up by the trough, like the GFS solution, or more shunted to the southeast, displayed by the ECMWF/Google Deep Mind solutions. The official forecast is on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, closer to the latter models and the previous NHC forecast. Post-tropical transition is expected on Wednesday due to cold waters, with a fast dissipation by Thursday as the weak cyclone opens up into a trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 34.2N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 36.0N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 38.5N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 44.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake