Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025
000 WTNT41 KNHC 250235 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025 Fernand continues to produce bursts of convection near the low-level center, with cold cloud tops notes in satellite images. Microwave imagery shows an improving structure with curved banding and a small inner core trying to become established. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 40 to 50 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt. The initial motion remains north-northeast at an estimated motion of 025/11 kt. The system is being steered around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. This north-northeast to northeast motion is anticipated throughout the forecast period as the system is steered around the ridge and into the mid-latitude southwesterlies, with an increase is forward speed. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous, and lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and Google DeepMind aids. Fernand is forecast to gradually strengthen during the 12-24h, as the system remains over warm water and light wind shear. However, there is some drier mid-level air depicted via satellite and latest SHIPS guidance, which may hinder convective organization at times. By late Monday or Tuesday, vertical wind shear begins to increase and sea surface temperatures decrease significantly along the forecast track. This will cause the system to weaken, and become post-tropical on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and remains near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 32.6N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 34.0N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 36.2N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 38.7N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 41.5N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 44.4N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly