Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025
000 WTNT41 KNHC 242032 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 PM AST Sun Aug 24 2025 Fernand continues to become better organized on satellite imagery with a more circular central dense overcast and a curved banding feature in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are slightly higher, so the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt. Further intensification is anticipated during the next day or so while Fernand remains in a warm water and light shear environment, tempered by plentiful environmental dry air. Around Tuesday, shear should increase, along with a decrease in SSTs. This should cause weakening, and the storm will likely become post- tropical on Wednesday. No significant change to the previous forecast was made, and the latest NHC prediction is close to a blend of the previous one and the intensity model consensus. The initial motion is 025/11 kt. The storm is likely to move to the north-northeast then northeast at a faster forward speed during the next day or two as the steering flow gradually shifts from the subtropical ridge to the mid-latitude southwesterlies. There is more spread in the model guidance than the last cycle, seemingly due to the forecast depth of the storm. Generally the models are a little slower, perhaps because Fernand isn't expected to be as strong (and presumably won't feel faster upper-level flow as much). The new NHC forecast follows the trend of the guidance, a bit slower than the past advisory, and just south of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 31.8N 59.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 33.2N 58.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 35.1N 57.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 37.6N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 40.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 43.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake