Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025
000 WTNT41 KNHC 271459 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 27 2025 Fernand's center is exposed to the west of a remaining band of deep convection, with the circulation itself a bit elongated. Satellite intensity estimates still encompass a rather large range--from 30 kt to about 45 kt. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, pending an ASCAT pass which we may not receive until after this advisory is released. Since last evening, convection appears to have had a stronger influence on Fernand's motion compared to the prevailing steering flow. The 12-hour average motion has been eastward, or 085 degrees at 10 kt. Assuming the convective influences lessen, the track models insist that Fernand should resume an acceleration toward the east-northeast very soon, with that motion continuing for the next day or two. Fernand is currently over sea surface temperatures of about 25 degrees Celsius, but it is expected to move over the north wall of the Gulf Stream later today, with SSTs falling to 23-24 degrees Celsius by this evening. These cooler waters should cause Fernand's deep convection to gradually decay through the remainder of the day, and the cyclone could become post-tropical as early as tonight. Winds are likely to remain at gale force, largely due to the system's increasing forward speed. Dissipation--when the circulation opens up into a trough--is likely in 36-48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 38.4N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 39.7N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 41.6N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 29/0000Z 43.6N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg