Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 10

By | August 26, 2025

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025

000
WTNT41 KNHC 260233
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062025
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025
 
Fernand has lost organization over the past several hours. The 
center is completely exposed, and convection is confined to a small 
area south of the center due to northerly vertical wind shear. The 
initial intensity is lowered a little to 45 kt, which lies near the 
high end of the latest satellite estimates. This intensity value is 
in good agreement with a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed 35 to 
40 kt winds on the eastern side of the system. Continued weakening 
is expected due to sharply cooler waters, dry air, and moderate to 
strong shear. Fernand will likely become post-tropical in about 24 
hours, if not sooner, and is expected to open into a trough in a 
couple of days.
 
The storm is moving northeastward at 11 kt. A slightly faster
northeastward motion in the flow between a subtropical high to its
east and a large trough to the west is expected until Fernand
dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one,
and lies near the Google Deep Mind and HCCA models, which have been
performing well for this system.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 36.1N  56.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 37.5N  54.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 39.6N  52.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  27/1200Z 41.8N  49.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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