Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
305
FONT15 KNHC 120844
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
0900 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH