Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
063
FONT15 KNHC 111445
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN