Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025
578 WTNT25 KNHC 120843 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0900 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 34.3W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 34.3W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 33.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.2N 37.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 17.0N 43.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.4N 46.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.0N 49.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.7N 52.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 34.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH