Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025
000 WTNT25 KNHC 150243 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0300 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 52.7W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 52.7W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 51.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.6N 58.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 35SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.4N 61.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.4N 67.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 25.0N 69.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 55SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 28.0N 70.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 140NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 52.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN