Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 06 2025
582 WTNT44 KNHC 060856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 AM AST Wed Aug 06 2025 Dexter continues to have vigorous deep convection in the eastern portion of the circulation, partially obscuring its low-level center. Observations from an earlier scatterometer pass had some rain-contaminated vectors between 40 to 42 kt. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to generally rise overnight and have a wide range of 30 to 50 kt. The initial intensity is set to 40 kt, in the middle of this range and closest to the UW-CIMSS DPRINT estimate. The tropical storm is moving east-northeastward at 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. Dexter should continue along the southern side of mid-level westerlies until interacting with a trough to the north in the next day or so. The trough will likely accelerate Dexter to the east-northeast, though models have some along track spread. The official track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and lies closest to the simple corrected consensus aids. Dexter has about another day or so as a tropical system. It is currently experiencing strong vertical wind shear, which is only expected to increase during the next 24 to 48 h. However, models continue to predict that the interaction with the trough to north in the next day or so should strengthen Dexter while it undergoes extratropical transition. It should be noted that during the extratropical phase of the forecast, there is quite a bit of spread in the intensity guidance. Several models during the 36 to 60 h time frame show the cyclone reaching hurricane-force. The NHC intensity forecast has been raised to a peak of 60 kt at 48 h, very near the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. There remains the possibility that upward adjustments in the intensity forecast could be need in future advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 39.4N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 39.8N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 40.6N 54.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 41.9N 50.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0600Z 43.2N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1800Z 44.5N 42.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0600Z 45.2N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0600Z 46.0N 30.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci