000 WTNT32 KNHC 051744 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 ...BERYL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 88.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula south of Cabo Catoche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo Catoche to Campeche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coast should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for that region later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 88.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center forecast to cross the northern Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected as Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today, but re-intensification is expected once the center moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and should spread westward along the Gulf coast of the peninsula this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the west and north coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Through today Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, across the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding anticipated. Heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts is expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas by Sunday into the coming week. This rainfall is expected to produce areas of flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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