023 WTNT42 KNHC 071448 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Beryl has become better organized this morning. Satellite images show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although still open on the northwest side. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62 kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt. Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm waters within light shear conditions. Rapid intensification is a distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall. Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt. The storm should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall along the middle Texas coast early on Monday. The new forecast is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical cyclone. This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into Missouri. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders. 2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass. Preparations should be rushed to completion before tropical storm conditions begin late today. 3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally considerable, is expected across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas today through Monday night. River flooding is also expected. 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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