000 WTNT34 KNHC 171735 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED BUT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 89.0W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM W OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The governments of Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico have discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for their coastal regions. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 89.0 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn northwestward with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move further inland over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough by tonight or tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to continue as the depression moves further inland, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low before it opens up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin