Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 1

By | October 5, 2024

000
WTNT24 KNHC 051457
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024
1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  95.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  95.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  95.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N  94.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N  94.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N  93.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N  91.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.4N  89.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N  87.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.0N  83.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.9N  78.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N  95.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Leave a Reply