000 WTNT33 KNHC 062047 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 82.7W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to cross Cuba this evening, and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this evening or tonight. Rafael is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Rafael is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba. Some weakening is forecast while Rafael crosses western Cuba, but the storm is forecast to remain a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A wind gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was recently reported at the Havana International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of western Cuba through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys through tonight. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches in areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown