230 WTNT35 KNHC 182036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152024 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 85.0W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Belize City northward to the border with Mexico. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from the border with Belize northward to Tulum. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City to Tulum A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 85.0 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and is expected to turn westward tonight before reaching land tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast, and it could become a tropical cyclone before making landfall tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Widespread 4-8 inch rainfall amounts are expected across northern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexican states from Quintana Roo westward to Veracruz. Isolated areas of amounts exceeding 12 inches are also possible through late Tuesday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore flow near and to the north of where the center moves inland. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi