538 WTNT33 KNHC 040848 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 76.9W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests in Cuba and the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a more northwestward motion is expected today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica by late today and be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm today with additional strengthening forecast thereafter. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it passes near the Cayman Islands in the northwestern Caribbean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days ...high...near 100 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late today. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during mid- to late week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica on Monday and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch