Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 1

By | November 3, 2024

000
WTNT23 KNHC 032052
TCMAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  77.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  77.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  77.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.3N  77.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N  77.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.7N  78.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.6N  80.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N  82.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.3N  84.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 25.4N  86.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.9N  88.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N  77.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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