Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

By | September 16, 2024

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FONT13 KNHC 160239
PWSAT3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082024               
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2024                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

DANVILLE VA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

RALEIGH NC     34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ROCKY MT NC    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  7   3(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

FAYETTEVILLE   34 13  13(26)   2(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CHERRY PT NC   34 14   2(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

NEW RIVER NC   34 22   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)

MOREHEAD CITY  34 26   4(30)   X(30)   X(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)

SURF CITY NC   34 50   7(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)

WILMINGTON NC  34 60   7(67)   X(67)   X(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)

BALD HEAD ISL  34 85   4(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

FLORENCE SC    34 23  23(46)   2(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)

COLUMBIA SC    34  1   5( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

LITTLE RIVER   34 80   8(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
LITTLE RIVER   50  3   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

MYRTLE BEACH   34 82   8(90)   X(90)   X(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  4   7(11)   X(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

GEORGETOWN SC  34 70  11(81)   X(81)   X(81)   1(82)   X(82)   X(82)

CHARLESTON SC  34 33   7(40)   X(40)   X(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  9   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

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