874 WTNT33 KNHC 071451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...RAFAEL TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 85.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Rafael. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 85.2 West. Rafael is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is anticipated during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart