888 WTNT33 KNHC 070845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 ...RAFAEL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 84.6W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Cuba. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 84.6 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected later today, with this general motion continuing through Saturday. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to continue to move away from western Cuba over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. Rafael is then forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over the Dry Tortugas through this morning. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected today, leading to storm total accumulations of 12 inches across portions of western Cuba. This may lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides, especially along the higher terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Pasch