000 WTNT33 KNHC 061452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Rafael Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 81.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila * Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge * Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 81.9 West. Rafael is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or just east of the Isle of Youth during the next few hours, and make landfall in western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Rafael is forecast to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible farther east in central Cuba today. RAINFALL: RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland. SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown