000 WTNT43 KNHC 080846 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Satellite images depict Rafael continues to produce deep convection, with cloud tops around -80 C. However, in the last few hours, the eye has become more cloud filled and less pronounced. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates this cycle were T/5.5 and T/6.0, from TAFB and SAB respectively. Objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 100-119 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is set to 105 kt. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours. The initial motion is 275/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael continues to be steered by a building ridge to the north. Model guidance has come into a little better agreement this cycle, with the latest operational ECMWF and UKMET leaning towards the GFS solution, which shows a slow anticyclonic meandering loop over the central Gulf of Mexico. Although there remains some ensemble divergence, the ensemble means are in better agreement as well. As the Rafael weakens, the low-level flow then causes the system to move southwestward in the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track was shifted towards these model trends and lies near to the simple and corrected-consensus aids. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures. Some intensity fluctuations are possible today. By tonight, westerly shear is forecast to increase slightly, and a drier airmass will begin to impact the system. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken throughout the forecast period, and the latest NHC intensity forecast follows the latest model weakening trends. Model simulated IR satellite depicts that the system will struggle to produce convection by the end of the period, and the latest NHC forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low in 120 h. Although, some models like the GFS depict that this could occur sooner than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 24.5N 88.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.8N 90.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 91.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 25.5N 92.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 26.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 26.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 24.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 23.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly