000 WTNT43 KNHC 070847 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024 Satellite images show that Rafael remains fairly well-organized, with very cold convective cloud tops, although the Central Dense Overcast is a bit ragged looking. Convective banding features are limited and no eye is evident on the imagery at this time. Upper-level outflow is restricted over the western semicircle of the circulation, indicative of some westerly vertical wind shear over the tropical cyclone. An earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into the system measured 700 mb flight-level winds of 101 kt in the northeast quadrant which equates to a peak surface wind of about 90 kt. This intensity is also supported by a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Rafael later this morning. The hurricane continues to move away from western Cuba with an initial motion of about 305/10 kt. Rafael is located on the southwest side of mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and the Florida Peninsula. Most of the global models guidance shows this ridge building westward, albeit weakly, over the Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. As a result, Rafael should turn westward with some decrease in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. Then, the majority of the models show a ridge building to the west of the system. This steering evolution would cause Rafael to turn more southward, and this is shown by the dynamical model consensus track prediction. The new official forecast is adjusted to the left of the previous NHC track but is not as far south as the consensus. The motion is likely to be quite slow during the latter part of the forecast period. There remains significant uncertainty in the future track of Rafael over the Gulf of Mexico and additional adjustments to subsequent official track forecasts are likely. Southwesterly vertical wind shear should continue to affect Rafael, although the latest SHIPS model output does not show very strong shear over the system during the next several days. However, the numerical guidance does indicate very dry air around Rafael through the forecast period, which should induce weakening. If the system moves farther south over the Gulf than currently anticipated, it could encounter lower wind shear, and likely a more moist air mass. This could result in Rafael maintaining its intensity more than currently expected. For now, the official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and calls for weakening later in the period. This is similar to the latest model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. 2. Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to western Cuba today. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain. 3. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 24.2N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 24.4N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 24.5N 87.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 24.6N 89.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.6N 90.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 24.6N 91.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.6N 92.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 24.2N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 23.5N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch