000 WTNT31 KNHC 191754 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Special Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...RECON FINDS TINY OSCAR A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 70.6W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba Provence of Camaguey For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 70.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with a gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds based on aircraft data are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today before gradual weakening begins early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure measured by dropsonde observations is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this afternoon, making outside preparations dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, are expected across the Turks and Caicos, southeastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf . STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in the Turks and Caicos Islands, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi