Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025
415
FONT15 KNHC 151448
PWSAT5
HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 5(22)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) 2(23)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 7(32) 1(33)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
VIEQUES PR 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 5(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT JOHN 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20)
SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 4( 6) 11(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABA 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
BARBUDA 34 2 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ANTIGUA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GUADELOUPE 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
AVES 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
DOMINICA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN