Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025
000 WTNT35 KNHC 210846 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 ...ERIN JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 72.1W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM WNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Erin and refer to local watches and warnings issued by Environment Canada. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 72.1 West. Erin is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a acceleration toward the east-northeast Friday into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda through early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Erin is expected to become post-tropical by Saturday. Erin is a large and growing hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km). NOAA buoy 41001, located 175 miles (280 km) east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a gust to 85 mph (137 km/h). A WeatherFlow station at Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks and will spread northward along the Virginia coastline during the next few hours. Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely today through early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda this afternoon through early Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along portions of the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg/Hagen