Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
569 WTNT35 KNHC 190233 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...ERIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH SURF AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 71.7W ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeast Bahamas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas * Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and other parts of the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 71.7 West. Erin is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn to the north is forecast on Tuesday or Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to move away from the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight and move east of the remainder of the Bahamas on Tuesday. The hurricane is then expected to move between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the week. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are expected during the next couple of days. However, Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erin will produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across portions of the southeastern Bahamas into Wednesday. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with storm total amounts to 8 inches, are possible, which could lead to flash flooding and urban flood concerns. Portions of Hispaniola, the central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos should receive an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain as well. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas tonight through Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven