Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
661 WTNT35 KNHC 180835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 ...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ERIN LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 70.2W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeast Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 70.2 West. Erin is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A gradual turn to the north is expected later today and on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected today. Even though some weakening is forecast beginning tonight, Erin will remain a large and dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week. Erin is a large system. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and portions of the southeast and central Bahamas. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late today through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi