
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Aug 18 2025
609 WTNT35 KNHC 180534 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 200 AM AST Mon Aug 18 2025 ...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 69.9W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 935 MI...1500 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeast Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 69.9 West. Erin is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to the north is expected later today and on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected today. Even though some weakening is forecast beginning tonight, Erin will remain a large and dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week. Erin is increasing in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force reconnaissance dropsonde data is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are expected across Puerto Rico today. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast over the Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas including San Salvador Island through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi