Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025
988 WTNT35 KNHC 180254 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025 ...ERIN RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AFTER COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... ...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD AS ERIN BECOMES A VERY LARGE HURRICANE THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 69.3W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeast Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 69.3 West. Erin is now moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual turn to the north-northwest and then north is expected on Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east and northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas overnight into Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is expected over the next 12 hours followed by gradual weakening. However, Erin is forecast to continue increasing in size and will remain a large and dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are expected across Puerto Rico through Monday. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast over the Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas including San Salvador Island through Tuesday. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southeast Bahamas overnight into Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin