Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025
000 WTNT35 KNHC 170531 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 200 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025 ...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 66.1W ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 66.1 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next day or two due to inner-core structural changes. Erin is becoming a larger system. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall today across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across the southeast and central Bahamas tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi