Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025
289 WTNT35 KNHC 170258 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 ...ERIN STILL A FORMIDABLE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE UNDERGOING STRUCTURAL CHANGES... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 65.1W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. The Meteorological Service of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Sint Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36-48 hours in the Turks and Caicos Islands. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 65.1 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through Sunday with a decrease in forward speed. A turn more northward is expected to occur on Monday into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to begin moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday. NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data indicates that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next day or two due to inner-core structural changes with Erin. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure measured by Air Force reserve dropsonde data is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning late Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning late Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin