Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025
000 WTNT35 KNHC 162348 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 800 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT ERIN IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 64.6W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NW OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 150 MI...235 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours in the Leeward Islands and in the next 48 hours in the Turks and Caicos Islands. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as well as in the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 64.6 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn towards the west-northwest is expected later tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn towards the north is expected to occur early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday, and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday. Recent data from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next couple of days due to inner-core structural changes. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated by hurricane hunter dropsonde data is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Leeward Islands through tonight, and in the watch area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning on Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin