Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025
619 WTNT35 KNHC 161731 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 200 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 ...CATEGORY 5 ERIN PASSING NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 63.3W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 63.3 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible this afternoon. Fluctuations in intensity are expected for the rest of the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 915 mb (27.02 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to continue producing areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward and Virgin Islands. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven