Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025
509 WTNT35 KNHC 161152 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 800 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 ...CATEGORY 4 ERIN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. While the eye has wobbled westward during the past few hours, Erin is moving generally toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through the weekend with a gradual decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the north is expected to occur early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued rapid strengthening is expected today, followed by fluctuations in intensity through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area later today. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven