Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
036 WTNT45 KNHC 210246 TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate little change in Erin during the past several hours. The aircraft reported a central pressure near 942 mb, and the wind data showed two concentric wind maxima - a weaker one about 15 n mi from the center and a stronger one 60-70 n mi from the center. The maximum 700-mb flight-level winds in the outer wind band are near 105 kt. Based on the lack of change since earlier, the initial intensity remains 95 kt, which is near the average of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion is now 010/14 kt. The steering scenario and track forecast reasoning are again unchanged from the previous advisory. Erin should move around the western and northwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge during the next 12-24 h, passing between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast. After that, the system should accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward while embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. The track guidance has changed little, and the new track forecast is an update of the previous forecast. A little strengthening could occur during the next 12 h or so, although the concentric wind maxima structure argues against significant strengthening. After 12 h, Erin should encounter increasing westerly shear and move over colder sea surface temperatures, which should result in steady weakening. The system is also expected to merge with a frontal system to become an extratropical low, and while this is currently forecast to occur by 72 h it could happen earlier. Erin should continue to weaken after extratropical transition as it moves east-northeastward across the north Atlantic. Erin is an unusually large hurricane. For hurricanes north of 30N latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th percentile of the Atlantic basin record. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected in the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Thursday through early Friday. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and Friday. Gusts to gale force are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia on Friday and Newfoundland on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 32.8N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 34.8N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 36.8N 69.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 38.7N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 40.4N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 42.2N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 44.5N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/0000Z 50.0N 31.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 26/0000Z 54.3N 21.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven