Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025
000 WTNT45 KNHC 200234 TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Erin has become a little better organized during the past several hours. Conventional satellite imagery shows persistent strong convection near and to the north of the center, while microwave overpasses and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the eyewall is trying to re-form. However, these changes have not yet resulted in a tighter inner core wind field, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt were measured about 100 n mi from the center. Based on this, the flight-level winds closer to the center, and satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 85 kt. The initial motion is now 340/10. The hurricane remains situated in a weakness or break in the subtropical ridge, and it is expected to turn northward along the western side of the ridge on Wednesday. After that, Erin should turn northeastward with some acceleration as it moves into the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. There are no significant changes to the forecast track through 72 h, and this part of the track lies near the center of the tightly-packed track guidance. After 72 h, the there is more spread, and the consensus models have shifted a little northward. In response, this portion of the track has been shifted to the north. For the next 36 h, Erin will be in an environment of light to moderate vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Much of the intensity guidance suggests the hurricane should strengthen during this time, if the spread-out wind field can become more concentrated near the re-formed eyewall. On the basis of this happening, the new intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the first 36 h. However, an alternative scenario is that the central pressure falls considerably without a lot of increase in the winds as the hurricane grows larger. After 36 h, increasing shear and the start of extratropical transition should cause weakening, and Erin is now forecast to become an extratropical low by 96 h. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeastern coast of Virginia, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect, on Thursday. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Thursday and Friday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 27.7N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 29.3N 73.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 31.6N 73.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 33.8N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 35.9N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 37.7N 66.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 39.3N 62.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 42.5N 53.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/0000Z 44.8N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven