Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
042 WTNT45 KNHC 181451 TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and numerous convective banding features. A considerable amount of lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the circulation. Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate some strengthening this morning, with the central pressure dropping to around 935 mb and peak 700-mb flight level winds supporting an intensity close to 120 kt. Rain bands over Erin's southwest quadrant will continue to cause tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the southeastern Bahamas today. Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day. Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S. mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate northeastward over the northern Atlantic. Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today. The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the environment. The official intensity forecast is near or a little above the simple and corrected model guidance. The system is expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this week. Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected through today over portions of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas eastward from San Salvador Island. Flash and urban flooding are possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late today through Tuesday. 3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 23.1N 70.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 24.2N 71.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 25.7N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 27.4N 73.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 29.5N 73.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 31.7N 73.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 33.9N 71.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 37.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 42.4N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch