Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 23

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WTNT42 KNHC 040856
TCDAT2

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to have a large area 
of strong convection near the center, although the overall cloud 
pattern has become less symmetric.  This matches the radar imagery 
from Grand Cayman which shows a well-defined eyewall on the 
northern side but remains open on the southern side.  There isn't 
much reason to believe that the gradual filling seen in the last 
aircraft mission has stopped, and the initial wind speed is set to 
105 kt, a bit lower than what the last aircraft data supported.  
The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters should be in the cyclone 
within a few hours for a better intensity estimate.

Beryl appears to be moving west-northwestward or 285/17 kt.  
Overall, there are no significant changes to the track forecast.  A 
large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl 
to move westward or west-northwestward during the next couple of 
days.  Model guidance is tightly clustered on a course toward the 
Yucatan Peninsula early Friday and emerging into the southern Gulf 
of Mexico early Saturday.  The western periphery of the ridge is 
forecast to weaken due to a series of shortwaves moving over the 
Central Plains, causing Beryl to slow down and turn northwestward 
this weekend.  While there isn't an atypical amount of track spread 
by the time Beryl impacts the western Gulf Coast early next week, 
the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles, so it is too early to 
pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards.  The new NHC 
forecast is close to the model consensus and the previous forecast.

Water vapor images show a upper-level trough moving west- 
southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, helping to impart 
moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl.  While the hurricane has been 
an over-performer so far, this magnitude of shear should cause 
notable weakening over the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to 
still be a hurricane near the Yucatan tomorrow.  After emerging into 
the Gulf of Mexico, Beryl will likely have a couple of days to 
re-strengthen over warm waters with light or moderate shear.  Almost 
all of the model guidance show the system near hurricane strength as 
Beryl approaches the western Gulf Coast, and so does the official 
forecast.  The NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the 
previous one, but should be considered of low confidence due to the 
inherent uncertainties of intensity forecasts in moderate shear.

Key Messages:

1. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge, damaging waves, and areas of 
flooding are expected to occur in the Cayman Islands today where a 
Hurricane Warning remains in effect.

2. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
beginning tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane. 
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect
for portions of that area.

3. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
eastern Mexico and southern Texas should monitor the progress of
Beryl.  Regardless of the exact track, rip currents could cause
life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and
continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 18.5N  81.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 19.0N  83.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 19.5N  86.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 20.3N  89.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/0600Z 21.2N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  06/1800Z 22.3N  93.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 23.3N  95.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 25.2N  97.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H  09/0600Z 27.0N  99.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake